At the end of 2022, CHAI completed a review of the rapidly evolving African vaccine manufacturing footprint using publicly available data. This review has revealed the scale and ambition of current plans to develop African Vaccine Manufacturing with announced plans representing a 7x increase in vaccine manufacturing capacity, across 27 different organizations and 13 countries. Ensuring that these plans will result in a long-term commercially viable African vaccine manufacturing ecosystem will require active market-shaping and collaboration across private and public sector stakeholders.
The Key Findings of the White Paper are as follows:
There are 10 manufacturers with existing vaccine production in Africa, whilst a further 17 additional organizations have publicly announced plans to begin manufacturing on the continent (see map below).
Of the total capacity expansion plans announced (~2.2 billion doses), 85 percent hinge on the manufacture of COVID-19 vaccines, with several manufacturers having announced plans to produce other antigens as well. Given the global oversupply situation for COVID-19 vaccines, CHAI expects a downward correction of these figures as capacity plans mature.
African manufacturers are becoming more ambitious in terms value chain integration: while the majority of plans state fill and finish as the entry point to vaccine manufacturing, select suppliers plan to include drug substance manufacturing.
Plans suggest that African manufacturers are looking to leapfrog to next-generation technology platforms which presents opportunities of a strong market position in new antigen markets; however, bears the risks of largely untested vaccines and unestablished markets.
A long-term commercially viable African vaccine manufacturing ecosystem requires market-shaping to support manufacturers as well as close collaboration across public and private sector stakeholders.
Map of current and planned vaccine manufacturing on the African continent, including ownership structure and value chain capabilities:
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